Primary Poll Tracker: June 29

Since the last update of our Primary Poll Tracker, we have seen a few new polls which have changed the state of the primary race a little bit.

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Repub_2015-06-15

On the Democratic side, Biden has recovered a bit, but it is still unlikely that he will enter the race. Sanders has inched up, and Webb fell a bit to be virtually tied with O’Malley. Chafee has apparently lost what little steam he previously had. And Clinton remains far ahead of the rest of the pack. On the Republican side, things are a tad more interesting. Bush continues to lead the pack, but his small lead has been fairly stagnant. Rubio, Walker, Carson, Paul, Huckabee and Cruz remain more or less in the same position they were. The two primary changes that have taken place are the falling of Rick Perry1 and the unexpected rise of Donald Trump. These two are likely uncorrelated as the two candidates do not seem to share the same base. Trump’s rise probably mostly has to do with an announcement bounce, as many were not anticipating his run. However, with his rise, Trump now may stand a chance at being on the main stage for the CNN and Fox News debates. If our methodology were used to determine the debaters now, Bush, Rubio, Trump, Walker, Carson, Paul, Huckabee, Cruz, Fiorina and Perry would take the stage, effectively meaning that Trump is replacing Christie.

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Primary Poll Tracker: June 23, A change and a Note on why you should read subscripts

As I was going back through my Kalman Filter code, I realized that I left in a hacky shortcut that I meant to go back and fix but never did. That shortcut was that I said that on any day where a poll showed 0% for a candidate, all polls from the same day showed 0% for that candidate, which is obviously wrong. I have since fixed it so that it is now a full weighted sum (where 0% is said to have the same variance as 3%), however when fixing this problem, I noticed another, much larger problem.

In the Kalman Filter, there are two terms, Var(et), which is the sampling variance from the polls. Then there is σu2, which I assumed to be the same thing. This is because I read the u in the subscript as a t. This led to a pretty large flaw in the code1, which honestly only translated into a small change in the chart. Nonetheless, read your subscripts, and here are your new charts!

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Repub_2015-06-15

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Primary Poll Tracker: June 22, 2015

As Electoral Statistics launches, our first focus will be on tracking the primary polls. Initially, we will be doing this only for national polls, but as time goes on, we will also track state polls in important primary states. We will not be analyzing every poll that comes out–for that, turn to any major political news organization–because we believe that an individual poll in insignificant without context. Rather, we have built a tool to aggregate polls so we can get a better feel for the field as a whole. Our tool has its quirks, its flaws and is definitely a work in progress. Please, check out our full methodology for a full explanation of how these charts are made. So, here is our first picture of the primary fields of both parties, as it currently stands1:

Dem_2015-06-15

Repub_2015-06-15

As you can see, Hillary Clinton leads the Democratic field very comfortable, while her next nearest opponent, Bernie Sanders, is only polling at 10.5%, a solid 50.1% below Clinton. You’ll also notice that we are not tracking Amy Klobuchar or Kirsten Gillibrand, although we considered them to be “eyeing” previously. This is because they have already endorsed Clinton, have not been mentioned as possible contenders by any major news outlet in months, and do not appear to be making any moves at all towards running.

On the Republican side, things are a bit messier. Jeb Bush and Scott Walker are virtually tied around 12%, but Rubio, Carson, Huckabee and Paul are nipping at their heels. If CNN or Fox News were to use our methodology in determining who shows up to the debates, the debaters would be Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, Marco Rubio, Ben Carson, Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Chris Christie, Carly Fiorina and Rick Perry.

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Who’s In and Who’s Out–Part 4

This is our fourth update (of many to come) in who has announced their candidacy for President, who has already said they won’t run and who is thought to be eyeing a run. (Note: all potential candidates are listen in alphabetical order only, the order is not indicative of who is doing better than whom–yet.)

The list has now been updated to include Lindsey Graham and Martin O’Malley who announced this week.

The (crowded) Republican field:

Who’s In

Ben Carson

Ted Cruz

Carly Fiorina

Lindsey Graham

Mike Huckabee

George Pataki

Rand Paul

Marco Rubio

Rick Santorum

Who’s Out

Rob Portman

Mitt Romney

Paul Ryan

Rick Snyder

Who’s Eyeing

Jeb Bush

Chris Christie

Bobby Jindal

John Kasich

Mike Pence

Rick Perry

Scott Walker

The (less crowded) Democratic field:

Who’s In

Hillary Clinton

Martin O’Malley

Bernie Sanders

Who’s Out

Andrew Cuomo

Deval Patrick

Elizabeth Warren

Who’s Eyeing

Joe Biden

Lincoln Chafee

Kirsten Gillibrand

Amy Klobuchar

Jim Webb