Since the last update of our Primary Poll Tracker, we have seen a few new polls which have changed the state of the primary race a little bit.
On the Democratic side, Biden has recovered a bit, but it is still unlikely that he will enter the race. Sanders has inched up, and Webb fell a bit to be virtually tied with O’Malley. Chafee has apparently lost what little steam he previously had. And Clinton remains far ahead of the rest of the pack. On the Republican side, things are a tad more interesting. Bush continues to lead the pack, but his small lead has been fairly stagnant. Rubio, Walker, Carson, Paul, Huckabee and Cruz remain more or less in the same position they were. The two primary changes that have taken place are the falling of Rick Perry1 and the unexpected rise of Donald Trump. These two are likely uncorrelated as the two candidates do not seem to share the same base. Trump’s rise probably mostly has to do with an announcement bounce, as many were not anticipating his run. However, with his rise, Trump now may stand a chance at being on the main stage for the CNN and Fox News debates. If our methodology were used to determine the debaters now, Bush, Rubio, Trump, Walker, Carson, Paul, Huckabee, Cruz, Fiorina and Perry would take the stage, effectively meaning that Trump is replacing Christie.
Footnotes [ + ]
|1.||↵||However, when comparing the previous chart and this one, that fall seems simply to be an adjustment of a previous over-fitting.|