As Electoral Statistics launches, our first focus will be on tracking the primary polls. Initially, we will be doing this only for national polls, but as time goes on, we will also track state polls in important primary states. We will not be analyzing every poll that comes out–for that, turn to any major political news organization–because we believe that an individual poll in insignificant without context. Rather, we have built a tool to aggregate polls so we can get a better feel for the field as a whole. Our tool has its quirks, its flaws and is definitely a work in progress. Please, check out our full methodology for a full explanation of how these charts are made. So, here is our first picture of the primary fields of both parties, as it currently stands1:
As you can see, Hillary Clinton leads the Democratic field very comfortable, while her next nearest opponent, Bernie Sanders, is only polling at 10.5%, a solid 50.1% below Clinton. You’ll also notice that we are not tracking Amy Klobuchar or Kirsten Gillibrand, although we considered them to be “eyeing” previously. This is because they have already endorsed Clinton, have not been mentioned as possible contenders by any major news outlet in months, and do not appear to be making any moves at all towards running.
On the Republican side, things are a bit messier. Jeb Bush and Scott Walker are virtually tied around 12%, but Rubio, Carson, Huckabee and Paul are nipping at their heels. If CNN or Fox News were to use our methodology in determining who shows up to the debates, the debaters would be Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, Marco Rubio, Ben Carson, Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Chris Christie, Carly Fiorina and Rick Perry.
Footnotes [ + ]
|1.||↵||These are not dated today because they are only able to give us an estimate up to the day of the last poll.|